Market Outlook 12th April
Market Performance (07/04/2019-11/04/2019)
From the First week of March, we
have been seeing positive momentum in the market. The index this week had
selling pressure as the index was already up by 90 pts and profit booking seems
to be obvious. The index has increased by 23 pts but could not sustain the
level and only closed 2pts above its opening. The average volume has been maintained
and the market cap has increased as well.
Weekly Statistics
Total Turnover
(Rs.)
|
2,449,012,888.00
|
Total Traded
Shares
|
8,604,001.00
|
Total No. of
Transactions
|
31,265.00
|
Scrips Traded
|
170
|
Market Cap at
(2019-04-08)
|
1,456,452.58
Millions
|
Market Cap at
(2019-04-11)
|
1,462,507.74
Millions
|
Floated Market
Cap at (2019-04-08)
|
514,189.13
Millions
|
Floated Market
Cap at (2019-04-11)
|
514,021.46
Millions
|
Top 10 Securities by Amount Traded
S.N.
|
Name of the
Security
|
Symbol
|
Amount Traded
(Rs. In Million)
|
1
|
NIC Asia Bank Ltd.
|
NICA
|
252.18
|
2
|
NMB Bank Limited
|
NMB
|
177.22
|
3
|
Kumari Bank Limited
|
KBL
|
150.92
|
4
|
Neco Insurance Co.
Ltd.
|
NIL
|
130.65
|
5
|
Nepal Bank Limited
|
NBL
|
120.56
|
6
|
Nepal Credit And
Commerce Bank Limited
|
NCCB
|
108.06
|
7
|
Prabhu Bank Limited
|
PRVU
|
99.78
|
8
|
Nepal Investment Bank
Limited
|
NIB
|
81.49
|
9
|
Machhapuchhre Bank
Limited
|
MBL
|
75.59
|
10
|
Prime Commercial Bank
Ltd.
|
PCBL
|
67.47
|
|
|
|
|
Top 10 Securities by Market Capitalization
S.N.
|
Security Name
|
Symbol
|
Capitalization
(Rs. In Million)
|
1
|
Nepal DoorsancharComapany
Limited
|
NTC
|
102,300.00
|
2
|
Nepal Investment Bank
Limited
|
NIB
|
68,964.32
|
3
|
Nabil Bank Limited
|
NABIL
|
66,275.33
|
4
|
Everest Bank Limited
|
EBL
|
48,161.18
|
5
|
Nepal Life Insurance
Co. Ltd.
|
NLIC
|
48,146.37
|
6
|
Standard Chartered
Bank Limited
|
SCB
|
47,347.55
|
7
|
Himalayan Bank Limited
|
HBL
|
41,749.25
|
8
|
NIC Asia Bank Ltd.
|
NICA
|
41,432.53
|
9
|
Nepal SBI Bank Limited
|
SBI
|
34,810.91
|
10
|
NMB Bank Limited
|
NMB
|
34,240.66
|
Listing of securities from (07/04/2019-11/04/2019)
S N
|
Name of company
|
Listing unit
|
Type of listing
|
1
|
RSDC Laghubittya Bittiya Sanstha Ltd.
|
575,920.00
|
Bonus
|
2
|
Ridi Hydropower Development Company Ltd.
|
300,633.00
|
Bonus
|
3
|
RMDC Laghubittya Bittiya Sanstha Ltd.
|
726,726.00
|
Bonus
|
4
|
Global IME Bank Ltd.
|
14,221,401.33
|
Bonus
|
5
|
Shree
Investment And Finance Company Ltd.
|
98,500.00
|
Bonus
|
6
|
Hydroelectricity Investment And Development Co
Ltd.
|
10,000,000.00
|
Bonus
|
7
|
Kankai Bikas Bank Ltd.
|
150,000.00
|
Bonus
|
8
|
Mountain Hydro Nepal Ltd.
|
12,500,000.00
|
IPO
|
9
|
Mahuli Samudayik Laghubittya Bittiya Sanstha Ltd.
|
300,000.00
|
Right
|
Technical Analysis
1. Weekly Support & Resistance
INDEX
|
S4
|
S3
|
S2
|
S1
|
Pivot
|
|
R1
|
R2
|
R3
|
R4
|
Classic
|
1,116.54
|
1,139.54
|
1,162.54
|
1,173.28
|
1,185.54
|
|
1,196.28
|
1,208.54
|
1,231.54
|
1,254.54
|
2.
Technical Indicators
The Index is currently trading
below is 200-day EMA. Although settlement above its 50-day EMA above 1160 level
the index was unable to breach 1190/1200 level. Minor correction at this stage
is likely and accepted. We could see the positive build up in RSI. Major
concern is shown by DMI and ADX line which indicated the Reversal of current
trend. Able to sustain the level above
1165, the index is likely to continue its rally towards its Resistance area of
1200/15.
Fundamental Analysis
We can see our country in a
brink of new era. Four year ago this April, this beautiful land was devastated
by Earthquake and shook Kathmandu to core. Our country is young with more than
40% of the country’s population between age group 16-40. It is ambitious, with
plans for new highways, new mass transit infrastructure, new airports, more
trade, more energy, and growth. With a stable government and an ambitious
economic plan, Nepal is, for the first time in decades, in a position to dream
big and to carry out a long-term vision that includes more and better services
and opportunities for people.
Things are moving in the right
direction. Extreme poverty is expected to decline from 15 percent in 2010 to a
10 percent in 2019, based on a poverty line of $1.90 a day. But Nepal will have
to grow fast enough to achieve that goal by some estimates by as much as 8
percent a year to further reduce poverty and boost growth. This will require
enormous levels of resources and investment.
Infrastructure investment alone will need to be around 12 percent of GDP
or more per annum roughly twice the current levels.
Nepal’s economy is anticipated
to grow at 6.2% in fiscal year (FY) 2019 and 6.3% in FY2020, says the latest
Asian Development Bank (ADB) Nepal Macroeconomic Update. “The outlook is for a
stable growth on the back of strong domestic demand, fueled by a larger budget
allocation to subnational governments and accelerated post-earthquake
reconstruction,” said ADB Country Director for Nepal Mr. MukhtorKhamudkhanov.
“Challenges to smooth implementation of fiscal federalism and maintaining fiscal
discipline at large could pose potential risks to the outlook. Nepal has the
potential to achieve and sustain higher growth rate over a long period of time
if these challenges are addressed.”
The agriculture sector will
likely grow from 2.8% in FY2018 to 4.5% in FY2019, owing to a good monsoon that
is expected to boost paddy production to 5.5 million tons, a rise of 8.4% from
the previous year. The industry sector is expected to expand by 7.1% in FY2019
buoyed by improved electricity supply and efforts to improve the investment
climate. And the services sector will likely grow by 6.4% in FY2019 with the
expansion of wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, and financial
intermediation.
The inflation is projected to
rise to 4.4% in FY2019 from 4.2% in FY2018, partly reflecting somewhat higher
inflation expected in India, stable oil prices, and higher government
expenditures under the new federal structure.
Revenue collection has
primarily increased on higher import growth and an improvement of the tax
system. The budget as of mid-January 2019 is in surplus by NRs173.3 billion
owing to strong revenue growth and a marginal slowdown in recurrent expenses.
Though capital expenditure has surged in the fiscal year through mid-February,
its execution stands at only 22.5%. This could again lead to a spending spree
in the last month of the fiscal year, undermining the quality of capital
projects, says the update.
With rising trade and current
account deficit, Nepal increasingly faces the risk of external sector
instability. Data to mid-February 2019 show that trade deficit has surpassed
net invisible earnings, widening the current account deficit to $1.5 billion,
marginally up from a deficit of $1.4 billion in the year earlier period. The
current account deficit is projected to widen further to 9.3% of gross domestic
product in FY2019, up from 8.2% a year earlier on increased imports of capital
and consumer goods and services, notwithstanding a healthy growth of
remittances and stable oil prices.
Investment Themes
·
Equitiesare gaining positive momentums in a
meanwhile and seems to be at corrective phase.
·
Long-term growth prospects and cheap absolute
and relative valuations support Equities.
·
Liquidity seems to be major concern in the
market.
·
FDI commitment/acceptance of proposals for FDI
is to be watched closely.
· Stocks’ with high dividend yield are to be
considered for buying and maintaining a Beta portfolio equaling market seems be
rationale at the moment.
Disclaimer:
The
report concerns the trading statistics and outlook based on the market
performance from 7th April 2019 to 11th April 2019. The
information in the document has been printed on the basis of publicly available
information.Internal data and other sources believed to be true and are for
general guidance only but which may have not been verified independently. While
every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of information
contained.
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